Freight Rates Rebound? Blank Sailings on Transpacific Routes Drop from 11 to 4, While Ships Are Returning to Europe Routes at an Accelerating Pace

SCFI Ends Two-Week Losing Streak, but Transpacific Blank Sailings Fall from 11 to 4 as Ships Return to Europe Routes

SCFI Edges Up 0.05%, with Europe and Mediterranean Routes Leading the Recovery

Data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on October 9 showed that the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,664.11 points, up 1.81 points or 0.05% from the previous week, ending two consecutive weeks of declines.

By route, the Far East–Europe and Far East–Mediterranean routes both ended a 13-week losing streak. Freight rates on the Far East–Europe route reached US$2,274 per TEU, up 3.4% week on week, while rates on the Far East–Mediterranean route rose 0.2% to US$3,002 per TEU.

On the transpacific routes, rates from the Far East to the US West Coast edged up by US$6 to US$7,584 per FEU, while rates to the US East Coast slipped by US$4 to US$10,524 per FEU.

The Shanghai Shipping Exchange said China's export container shipping market was recovering steadily after the National Day holiday. Transport demand remained stable, while freight rates on most routes fluctuated within a narrow range.

Transpacific Routes: Fewer Blank Sailings Put Freight Rate Support to the Test

Although transpacific freight rates remain relatively high, supply conditions are beginning to change. According to the latest data from Drewry, the number of blank sailings scheduled for next week has fallen sharply from 11 this week to just four. Fewer blank sailings mean more shipping capacity will be available to the market.

The October 8 edition of Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) also pointed to downward pressure. The index fell 2% to US$4,351 per FEU. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped 3% to US$7,624, while rates from Shanghai to New York declined 2% to US$10,220 per FEU.

Industry observers believe transpacific freight rates may be approaching a near-term peak, with more noticeable downward adjustments possible in the second half of October.

The extension of the US–China trade truce until January 2027, alongside plans for reciprocal tariff reductions on approximately US$30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods, could improve transpacific vessel utilization in the short term. However, the additional cargo volumes may not be sufficient on their own to reverse the overall freight rate trend.

Europe Routes: Rate Hike Announcements Face the Return of Suez Capacity

The central challenge for European routes is the growing tension between carriers' rate hike plans and the accelerating return of vessels to the Suez Canal.

Several carriers have announced rate increases for the second half of October. Maersk plans to raise rates to US$4,000 per FEU from October 19, while Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have announced target rates of US$4,200 per FEU. Some freight forwarders have also reported that carriers plan to increase European route rates by US$1,500 per FEU from October 15.

However, announced increases and actual market rates remain far apart.

Maersk's Shanghai–Rotterdam quotation for Week 43 stood at US$3,300 per FEU, compared with US$3,110 in Week 42. The increase was only about US$190, well below the announced target of US$4,000 per FEU.

A research report from Founder CIFCO Futures noted that Maersk's increase had been relatively modest and that ample space was available across the final three weeks of October, making it more difficult for the announced rate hikes to be fully implemented.

Drewry's data showed that Shanghai–Rotterdam rates fell 2% to US$3,337 per FEU, while Shanghai–Genoa rates remained unchanged at US$3,696 per FEU.

After 13 consecutive weeks of declines, carriers are attempting to reverse the trend by adjusting capacity. Whether the announced increases will translate into actual transaction prices remains uncertain.

The pressure from the supply side is becoming more immediate.

ONE, HMM and Yang Ming, members of the Premier Alliance, have announced that the FE1 Southeast Asia–North Europe service will resume transits through the Suez Canal.

The first vessel, ONE Continuity, is scheduled to depart Laem Chabang on October 19 and make its first westbound Suez transit on November 9. The round-voyage cycle is expected to shorten from 13 weeks to 11 weeks.

Hapag-Lloyd has also confirmed that the vessel Umm Qarn will depart Tanjung Pelepas on October 27 to operate the SE1 service via the Suez Canal.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini cooperation, along with CMA CGM and MSC, had already partially resumed Suez transits.

The return to the Suez Canal directly releases effective capacity previously absorbed by longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. In Week 39, Suez Canal transits were 68% higher than in the same period last year, indicating that effective capacity on Asia–Europe routes is increasing at an accelerating pace.

Port Congestion: A Remaining Buffer Against the Release of Capacity

Additional vessel capacity does not necessarily translate immediately into effective market supply.

Congestion at the Port of Singapore remains severe, with vessel waiting times of three to five days and yard utilization approaching capacity. Average arrival delays for some vessels have reached 4.48 days.

According to Linerlytica, Asian ports accounted for 64% of global port congestion. Congestion at Singapore, Port Klang and Ho Chi Minh City/Cai Mep has intensified over the past three weeks.

Conditions at China's major hub ports, however, have improved. Waiting times at Shanghai's Yangshan terminal are around five days, while delays at Waigaoqiao and Ningbo are approximately two to three days—more than 50% lower than before the National Day holiday.

Improved port turnaround can help reduce schedule delays, but it can also increase effective shipping capacity and indirectly put pressure on freight rates.

Industry Outlook

The key variable in the container shipping market is shifting from demand to supply.

The sharp decline in transpacific blank sailings and the accelerating return of vessels to Europe routes are adding to supply-side pressure. At the same time, there remains a clear gap between carriers' announced rate increases and the prices actually being offered to customers.

Maersk's Week 43 Shanghai–Rotterdam quotation rose by only US$190 from the previous week, far short of its announced target of US$4,000 per FEU. This suggests that, when balancing rate increases against the need to fill available slots, carriers may be placing greater emphasis on securing cargo volumes.

For freight forwarders and cargo owners, actual quotations for specific sailings may be more useful than the headline figures in rate hike announcements. European route transaction prices in the second half of October could remain below the announced targets.

Meanwhile, the shorter transit times resulting from the resumption of Suez Canal services will gradually affect vessel rotations and sailing schedules. Shippers and logistics providers moving cargo through major European ports should allow sufficient flexibility in their transport plans.